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Thread: Objective way to identify trend

  1. Default Objective way to identify trend

    I have a trend trading system and most losses appear in the range market condition. What can I use as a range identification for my system other than looking at trendlines and swing highs lows dynamic? I tried using ADX but it doesn't work well, it often signals range when there is a trend and vise versa.

  2. Default

    Price has two states available to it: trending and ranging. If you don't want to look at trendlines, then you're going to have a more difficult time finding ranges. You may be interested in the pdf I uploaded here. In a nutshell, once your trendline is broken, the probability of ranging increases. If an attempt at a reversal fails, the probability of ranging is that much greater.

    Your thread title says "objective way to identify trend". As you have a trend-trading system, I assume that what you're looking for is an objective way to identify ranges. The above will help you do that.

  3. Default

    I don't mind trendlines. The logic was that decisions I make about whether it's a trend or not may be a bit subjective thus making my strategy assessment not 100% reliable. But so far the trendlines is the best way to go.

  4. #4
    AndrewVen Guest

    Default

    There's no reason for trendlines to be subjective. For an uptrend, draw a line across the first two swing lows and a parallel line across the intervening swing high. That's your trend channel. Flip for a downtrend. Add volume and they can provide you with a plan of action.

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